Investment Planning

Stocks, Bitcoin, and NFTs, are surging. The NASDAQ is up 41% since last March, Bitcoin soared 627%, and last week, the artist Beeple sold an NFT for $69 million. The economy is opening up, stimulus checks are coming, and investors are in growth mode. If everyone is making money buying stocks and other investments, why is it time to buy T-Bills? Let's find out.

Do you know the rate of return on your investments? Have you ever calculated your total return? In my experience, most investors don't know what they earn on their money. Of course, I often hear about winning stock trades – never the losers, nor do people tell me how much they allocate to their trades. A 10% gain on a million-dollar investment is more impactful than one where you only commit $100.

It's finally here! The greatest sporting event is back after last year's hiatus. Though fans, bands, cheerleaders, and mascots are missing, it's still exciting to watch. My family and I look forward to competing against each other with our brackets, and I always participate in ESPN's Tournament Challenge, hoping that I will be the one with the perfect bracket. However, after Oral Roberts beat Ohio State, I'm out, and so are 95% of the other participants.

What a difference a year makes. Last March, COVID appeared, and global commerce came to a halt. The Dow Jones fell more than 30% as investors reacted to the virus and economic shutdown. Initially, working from home was expected to last a few weeks before things returned to normal. Larry Kudlow, former director of the National Economic Council, said, "We have contained this.

When I ride my mountain bike, I take calculated risks, or I used to anyway. I've ridden down mountains on beaches and through state parks. Riding down the Flume Trail in Lake Tahoe was a favorite. I'm not an overly aggressive rider, but I hold my own.

Interest rates are rising. Year to date, the yield on the US 30-Year Treasury bond is up 24%, and from the July low, it has risen 75%. Though rates are near historical lows, they can rise quickly. When rates rise, bond prices fall, and at some point, they will threaten stocks as investors search for decent returns with less risk.

This year felt like a decade. We are twenty days from the start of a new year, and it can't get here fast enough. I'm expecting next year to be much better because it can't get much worse – right? It's been a wild ride for investors this year, but if you stayed the course, you probably made money. The NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones are solidly in the green, despite falling more than 30% in March and April.

The Hare and the Tortoise is a classic Aesop fable. A story we know well.  The hare mockingly asking the tortoise, "Do you ever get anywhere?" Of course, we know how the story ends. The tortoise "kept going slowly but steadily, and, after a time, passed the place where the Hare was sleeping." Practicing a life of slow and steady is harder than it looks. We are an impatient nation addicted to getting our way as quickly as possible.

Should you buy Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies? Maybe. Bitcoin has performed well this year, up 107%. Though it has done well, it still hasn't eclipsed its all-time high set in 2017. If you want to buy Bitcoin, I would consider it an alternative investment, not as a substitute for cash or a money market fund.  

Election day has come and gone, and pollsters once again missed their mark. In 2016, they forecasted a Clinton landslide, and she lost. This year, Biden was projected to win by double digits, and a blue-wave would overtake the House and Senate. The election is not officially over, but it won't be a double-digit victory, and we did not experience a blue-wave. Same as it ever was.